Piles of commercial-real-estate loans at banks may be worth just 77 cents on the dollar — if that

The swift collapse of Silicon Valley Bank earlier in March put a spotlight on potentially painful losses lurking in commercial-real-estate loans on their books.

It also sparked debate over what piles of older loans on commercial properties might be worth now that low interest rates and peak real-estate prices have vanished, and as stress in the banking system makes credit more scarce.

The regulators at a $16.5 billion discount, which pencils out to about 77 cents on the dollar, offers a glimpse into a new clearing price for commercial-real-estate loans.

“The way I look at it is: [that] the Silicon Valley Bank trade created a baseline for the market,” David Blatt, chief executive at CapStack Partners, a credit fund that buys commercial-real-estate loans from banks and originates short-term bridge loans and mezzanine debt.

“To me, that’s the top end, not the bottom end, for commercial-real-estate loans,” said Blatt, who studied the bank’s loan exposure.

Unlike stocks or bonds, loans in the estimated $5.5 trillion commercial-property market don’t sell in a transparent way, which means pegging their values can be difficult.

To be sure, not all of the sold assets of Silicon Valley Bank were related to commercial real estate. The bank reported about $13 billion of real-estate exposure at the end of 2022, according to a quarterly filing, which categorized about $2.6 billion as loans on commercial real estate.

Still, Blatt and other commercial-real-estate veterans steeped in previous bank-failure cycles told MarketWatch the sale provides a “mark” in terms of where loans actually changed hands in the wake of two regional-bank failures.

”Everybody is dusting off their old playbook,” said Jack Mullen, founder of Summer Street Advisors, a commercial-real-estate advisory firm that’s been involved in multibillion-dollar workouts. “There just hasn’t been much distress for years.”

“People are not going to let it carry into next year,” he said. “On the regulatory side, it’s coming right to the front of the line. People are supermindful of it.”

Richard Hill, head of real-estate strategy and research at Cohen & Steers, recently argued in a report that while banks hold an estimated 45% of all commercial mortgages, the debt isn’t a systemic risk for banks.

“We previously argued that [a decline of 10% to 20% in commercial-property prices] was reasonable to expect, and we now believe it could be 20–25%,” Hill wrote. He also said higher loan standards in the wake of the 2007–08 global financial crisis can provide lenders a cushion if property values fall.

In the reeling office sector, however, the value of older office buildings in Manhattan could tumble 70%, said Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, a professor of real estate and finance at Columbia University’s business school, in a talk Thursday about turning older offices into homes hosted by the Volcker Alliance.

“Forty percent of that is just coming from interest rates alone,” Van Nieuwerburgh said, adding that remote work, current regulations and other pressures on the office-building market contribute to the value drop.